Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: AA 1617 at 10:56 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 41%.

Nonstops that day


AA 1617 American Flight history →	DFW 10:56	BUR 12:05	22%	7%	0.8%	71%
AA 2597 American Flight history →	DFW 20:46	BUR 21:58	41%	13%	0.9%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31DL 1291	1h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	6h 09m	93%	86%
United Details →	DFW 06:00 → SFO 07:47UA 790	2h 36m San Francisco	SFO 10:23 → BUR 11:49UA 2115	7h 49m	99%	84%
United Details →	DFW 08:45 → DEN 10:06UA 644	1h 09m Denver	DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154	6h 03m	94%	83%
United Details →	DFW 11:02 → SFO 12:51UA 1712	3h 24m San Francisco	SFO 16:15 → BUR 17:42UA 2764	8h 40m	99%	82%
American Details →	DFW 10:50 → PHX 11:19AA 2990	3h 22m Phoenix	PHX 14:41 → BUR 16:11AA 6415 · flown by SkyWest	7h 21m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483	9h 35m	99%	79%
United Details →	DFW 15:21 → SFO 17:13UA 454	3h 07m San Francisco	SFO 20:20 → BUR 21:47UA 1367	8h 26m	95%	77%
American Details →	DFW 13:40 → PHX 14:08AA 2113	2h 29m Phoenix	PHX 16:37 → BUR 18:07AA 4944 · flown by SkyWest	6h 27m	97%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	DFW 16:16 → SEA 18:37AS 1574	46m Seattle	SEA 19:23 → BUR 21:59AS 1408	7h 43m	47%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON