Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 952 at 10:45 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 952 DFW 10:45 → BZN 13:10 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 1774 DFW 18:30 → BZN 20:39 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 952 American Flight history →	DFW 10:45	BZN 13:10	16%	4%	0.8%	84%
AA 1653 American Flight history →	DFW 08:40	BZN 10:47	16%	3%	1.0%	83%
AA 1647 American Flight history →	DFW 13:19	BZN 15:22	23%	5%	0.8%	73%
AA 1774 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	BZN 20:39	28%	7%	0.8%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON