Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4064 at 20:00 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 4064 DFW 20:00 → CAE 23:34 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time Riskiest AA 2923 DFW 13:21 → CAE 16:57 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4064 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:00	CAE 23:34	20%	5%	1.2%	69%
AA 3449 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:03	CAE 18:36	22%	4%	1.0%	78%
AA 5109 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 09:45	CAE 13:23	26%	5%	1.3%	80%
AA 5437 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 09:55	CAE 13:23	28%	5%	1.3%	81%
AA 2923 American	DFW 13:21	CAE 16:57	37%	10%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON