Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 4005 at 08:52 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–39%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4005 DFW 08:52 → CHS 12:29 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1662 DFW 15:22 → CHS 19:01 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4005 Envoy	DFW 08:52	CHS 12:29	12%	2%	2.3%	no record
AA 5120 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 08:36	CHS 12:28	19%	5%	3.2%	84%
AA 947 American	DFW 11:00	CHS 14:33	30%	6%	2.7%	no record
AA 1656 American Flight history →	DFW 11:13	CHS 14:50	30%	6%	2.7%	62%
AA 2943 American	DFW 15:16	CHS 18:58	37%	9%	2.1%	no record
AA 2559 American Flight history →	DFW 19:17	CHS 22:55	39%	12%	1.9%	46%
AA 1662 American Flight history →	DFW 15:22	CHS 19:01	39%	11%	2.1%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON