Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:22 am at Dallas-Fort Worth); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Today: AA 2818 at 10:01 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–43%.

Safest bet today AA 2818 DFW 10:01 → CLE 13:43 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest AA 2675 DFW 17:42 → CLE 21:16 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2818 American Flight history →	DFW 10:01	CLE 13:43	26%	6%	0.2%	61%
AA 1351 American	DFW 10:57	CLE 14:46	26%	6%	0.3%	no record
AA 1230 American	DFW 15:17	CLE 19:01	32%	9%	0.3%	no record
AA 1682 American Flight history →	DFW 15:14	CLE 18:59	33%	9%	0.3%	48%
AA 560 American Flight history →	DFW 20:14	CLE 00:04	35%	9%	1.0%	57%
AA 2675 American	DFW 17:42	CLE 21:16	43%	11%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON