Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 575 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30%.

Safest bet that day AA 575 DFW 05:00 → CLT 08:38 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2409 DFW 21:25 → CLT 00:59 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 575 American Flight history →	DFW 05:00	CLT 08:38	9%	3%	1.8%	90%
AA 1091 American Flight history →	DFW 04:52	CLT 08:22	12%	3%	1.6%	96%
AA 317 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	CLT 10:44	16%	3%	1.6%	86%
AA 1690 American Flight history →	DFW 08:30	CLT 12:10	17%	3%	1.6%	88%
F9 3110 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:30	CLT 11:16	18%	7%	0.9%	78%
AA 576 American	DFW 08:37	CLT 12:17	19%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 1857 American Flight history →	DFW 09:50	CLT 13:31	20%	5%	1.2%	72%
AA 2909 American	DFW 09:47	CLT 13:28	21%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 1696 American Flight history →	DFW 11:55	CLT 15:36	22%	5%	1.2%	72%
AA 256 American	DFW 11:09	CLT 14:39	26%	6%	1.6%	no record
AA 1285 American Flight history →	DFW 14:25	CLT 18:13	26%	6%	1.2%	55%
AA 1703 American Flight history →	DFW 17:54	CLT 21:44	30%	6%	1.0%	67%
AA 2407 American Flight history →	DFW 15:57	CLT 19:45	30%	6%	1.2%	35%
AA 1229 American Flight history →	DFW 18:54	CLT 22:38	30%	6%	1.2%	53%
AA 2409 American Flight history →	DFW 21:25	CLT 00:59	30%	5%	1.2%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON