Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1279 at 07:18 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 1279 DFW 07:18 → CMH 10:50 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 398 DFW 20:24 → CMH 23:54 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1279 American Flight history →	DFW 07:18	CMH 10:50	13%	4%	0.4%	84%
AA 1492 American Flight history →	DFW 10:11	CMH 13:50	16%	5%	0.9%	73%
AA 3995 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:56	CMH 23:23	22%	4%	0.6%	74%
AA 2337 American Flight history →	DFW 15:34	CMH 19:07	30%	8%	1.2%	62%
AA 851 American	DFW 15:33	CMH 19:07	30%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 641 American Flight history →	DFW 17:24	CMH 20:50	35%	10%	1.0%	48%
AA 398 American Flight history →	DFW 20:24	CMH 23:54	37%	9%	1.2%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON