Today: AA 1552 at 08:37 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–39%.

Safest bet today AA 1552 DFW 08:37 → COS 09:50 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest AA 6267 DFW 17:27 → COS 18:34 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1552 American Flight history →	DFW 08:37	COS 09:50	16%	6%	0.2%	71%
AA 1697 American Flight history →	DFW 08:55	COS 09:52	17%	6%	0.2%	77%
OO 6288 SkyWest	DFW 11:18	COS 12:36	25%	11%	0.3%	no record
AA 6390 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 11:28	COS 12:37	26%	12%	0.3%	89%worse than usual
OO 6234 SkyWest	DFW 15:55	COS 17:12	30%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 1170 American Flight history →	DFW 13:53	COS 14:53	31%	9%	1.0%	70%
AA 790 American Flight history →	DFW 21:25	COS 22:23	37%	9%	0.8%	55%
AA 6267 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 17:27	COS 18:34	39%	10%	0.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON