Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 12–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3478 DFW 09:30 → COU 11:14 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest MQ 3402 DFW 15:13 → COU 17:02 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3478 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:30	COU 11:14	12%	2%	0.8%	86%
AA 3416 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:43	COU 11:26	12%	2%	0.8%	88%
AA 3890 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:13	COU 18:56	18%	3%	0.8%	67%
AA 4282 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:33	COU 22:20	18%	4%	0.8%	73%
AA 3481 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:07	COU 16:49	18%	3%	0.8%	85%
MQ 3402 Envoy	DFW 15:13	COU 17:02	18%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON