Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Today: AA 1713 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–39%.

Safest bet today AA 1713 DFW 07:05 → CVG 10:25 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 1786 DFW 18:01 → CVG 21:14 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1713 American Flight history →	DFW 07:05	CVG 10:25	14%	5%	0.3%	83%
AA 2610 American Flight history →	DFW 07:33	CVG 10:45	15%	4%	0.3%	87%
F9 4280 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 06:31	CVG 09:56	18%	6%	0.7%	78%
AA 3305 American Flight history →	DFW 11:03	CVG 14:14	25%	7%	0.3%	81%
AA 1728 American Flight history →	DFW 15:50	CVG 19:09	34%	8%	1.2%	39%
AA 2919 American Flight history →	DFW 15:23	CVG 18:35	35%	9%	1.2%	57%
AA 1266 American Flight history →	DFW 20:06	CVG 23:27	37%	8%	1.2%	29%
AA 799 American Flight history →	DFW 20:07	CVG 23:22	38%	8%	1.2%	51%
AA 1786 American	DFW 18:01	CVG 21:14	39%	9%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON