Today: AA 5163 at 09:30 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30%.

Safest bet today AA 5163 DFW 09:30 → DAY 13:04 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 5245 DFW 20:13 → DAY 23:44 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5163 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 09:30	DAY 13:04	20%	6%	0.6%	83%
OH 5114 PSA	DFW 09:38	DAY 12:59	21%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 5156 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 14:30	DAY 18:02	28%	10%	0.8%	69%
AA 5517 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 14:33	DAY 17:54	30%	10%	0.8%	92%worse than usual
AA 5609 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 17:16	DAY 20:48	30%	12%	0.8%	64%
AA 5245 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 20:13	DAY 23:44	30%	13%	0.8%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON