Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 773 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 773 DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2235 DFW 18:30 → DEN 19:41 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 773 United Flight history →	DFW 05:45	DEN 06:53	6%	3%	0.6%	95%
F9 2147 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 05:18	DEN 06:28	11%	3%	0.8%	90%
UA 644 United Flight history →	DFW 08:45	DEN 10:06	11%	5%	0.6%	89%
UA 567 United	DFW 09:04	DEN 10:25	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 248 United Flight history →	DFW 13:44	DEN 14:55	16%	6%	0.6%	83%
UA 1602 United Flight history →	DFW 18:45	DEN 20:15	16%	8%	0.6%	71%
UA 2049 United Flight history →	DFW 11:35	DEN 12:45	18%	5%	0.6%	84%
AA 1523 American Flight history →	DFW 07:05	DEN 08:08	19%	5%	1.3%	81%
F9 2549 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:01	DEN 08:12	20%	5%	0.8%	85%
UA 1303 United Flight history →	DFW 16:50	DEN 18:20	20%	8%	0.6%	59%
F9 1323 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 10:46	DEN 11:58	22%	6%	0.9%	77%
AA 1756 American Flight history →	DFW 08:35	DEN 09:42	22%	5%	1.3%	77%
AA 2359 American Flight history →	DFW 10:41	DEN 11:46	25%	6%	1.2%	73%
F9 4069 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 21:31	DEN 22:55	26%	9%	1.0%	64%
F9 2631 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 18:58	DEN 20:17	28%	10%	0.8%	76%
AA 420 American Flight history →	DFW 13:17	DEN 14:21	28%	6%	1.3%	77%
AA 1832 American Flight history →	DFW 14:26	DEN 15:30	30%	8%	1.3%	62%
AA 1322 American Flight history →	DFW 16:13	DEN 17:19	33%	9%	1.3%	49%
AA 662 American Flight history →	DFW 22:45	DEN 23:50	37%	9%	1.3%	44%
AA 577 American Flight history →	DFW 20:29	DEN 21:32	38%	10%	1.3%	50%
AA 2235 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	DEN 19:41	38%	10%	1.6%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON