Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2183 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 2183 DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 690 DFW 19:55 → DTW 23:40 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2183 Delta Flight history →	DFW 05:20	DTW 09:04	6%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 2746 Delta Flight history →	DFW 11:19	DTW 15:02	10%	3%	0.5%	80%
DL 735 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:24	DTW 17:10	14%	4%	0.6%	79%
AA 1792 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	DTW 10:52	15%	4%	1.2%	83%
AA 3101 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	DTW 10:57	15%	4%	1.0%	85%
F9 3178 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:00	DTW 10:54	17%	5%	0.8%	95%worse than usual
DL 1441 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:35	DTW 22:20	19%	5%	0.6%	80%
AA 1793 American Flight history →	DFW 11:15	DTW 14:56	22%	6%	1.2%	64%
F9 3990 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 14:29	DTW 18:15	24%	9%	0.7%	76%
AA 1786 American Flight history →	DFW 15:17	DTW 18:59	28%	8%	1.2%	49%
AA 3108 American Flight history →	DFW 18:47	DTW 22:36	33%	10%	1.2%	52%
AA 690 American Flight history →	DFW 19:55	DTW 23:40	37%	10%	0.9%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON