Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:33 am at Dallas-Fort Worth); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Today: AA 3504 at 16:16 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–48%.

Safest bet today AA 3504 DFW 16:16 → ELP 17:01 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 555 DFW 18:04 → ELP 18:52 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 32% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3504 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 16:16	ELP 17:01	25%	6%	0.4%	76%
AA 1658 American	DFW 10:52	ELP 11:52	28%	9%	0.3%	no record
AA 2210 American Flight history →	DFW 10:40	ELP 11:27	31%	9%	0.3%	67%
OO 4967 SkyWest	DFW 13:04	ELP 14:03	33%	11%	0.2%	no record
AA 1514 American	DFW 20:51	ELP 21:47	39%	11%	1.6%	no record
AA 2418 American	DFW 14:52	ELP 15:48	40%	10%	0.3%	no record
AA 1607 American Flight history →	DFW 22:59	ELP 23:46	41%	11%	1.8%	54%
AA 690 American	DFW 15:47	ELP 16:35	44%	10%	0.4%	no record
AA 1802 American Flight history →	DFW 14:49	ELP 15:34	45%	9%	0.4%	44%
AA 841 American Flight history →	DFW 20:10	ELP 20:55	46%	13%	1.8%	44%
AA 555 American Flight history →	DFW 18:04	ELP 18:52	48%	9%	0.5%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON