Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1866 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 1866 DFW 07:00 → FLL 10:53 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 1393 DFW 20:08 → FLL 23:58 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1866 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	FLL 10:53	16%	3%	1.8%	80%
AA 1429 American Flight history →	DFW 06:58	FLL 10:53	18%	4%	1.2%	70%
AA 1390 American Flight history →	DFW 09:25	FLL 13:22	20%	5%	1.2%	67%
B6 2282 JetBlue Flight history →	DFW 07:00	FLL 10:57	20%	6%	0.6%	83%
AA 1863 American Flight history →	DFW 10:21	FLL 14:14	20%	5%	1.2%	70%
AA 1497 American	DFW 11:38	FLL 15:33	25%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 2014 American Flight history →	DFW 11:45	FLL 15:36	25%	6%	1.3%	59%
AA 1862 American Flight history →	DFW 12:45	FLL 16:39	25%	5%	1.3%	55%
B6 482 JetBlue Flight history →	DFW 11:28	FLL 15:24	30%	10%	0.7%	76%
AA 1868 American Flight history →	DFW 14:25	FLL 18:19	32%	7%	1.3%	38%
AA 2946 American Flight history →	DFW 18:55	FLL 22:52	33%	9%	1.2%	49%
F9 1974 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 13:53	FLL 17:55	33%	12%	0.8%	66%
B6 1882 JetBlue Flight history →	DFW 16:10	FLL 20:10	34%	14%	0.7%	25%
AA 1393 American Flight history →	DFW 20:08	FLL 23:58	37%	8%	1.3%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON