Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:46 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 2937 at 19:49, with a 55% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 2937 American Flight history →	DFW 19:49	FSD 21:58	55%	24%	0.6%	47%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sioux Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DFW 17:49 → ORD 20:06AA 1573	2h 24m Chicago	ORD 22:30 → FSD 00:18 +1AA 4942 · flown by SkyWest	6h 29m	90%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DFW 18:45 → DEN 20:15UA 1602	55m Denver	DEN 21:10 → FSD 23:53UA 5700 · flown by SkyWest	5h 08m	57%	43%
United Details →	DFW 17:47 → ORD 20:30UA 1564	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → FSD 23:31UA 1842	5h 44m	57%	36%
American Details →	DFW 18:38 → ORD 21:22AA 1424	1h 08m Chicago	ORD 22:30 → FSD 00:18 +1AA 4942 · flown by SkyWest	5h 40m	59%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON