Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4918 at 08:51 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 4918 DFW 08:51 → GJT 10:26 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 4996 DFW 15:00 → GJT 16:25 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4918 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 08:51	GJT 10:26	10%	4%	0.4%	89%
OO 6235 SkyWest	DFW 08:56	GJT 10:20	12%	4%	0.4%	no record
MQ 4123 Envoy	DFW 11:13	GJT 12:47	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4122 Envoy	DFW 15:12	GJT 16:50	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3506 Envoy	DFW 20:56	GJT 22:33	14%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 4996 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 15:00	GJT 16:25	22%	6%	0.7%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON