Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:45 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 49–50% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 981 American Flight history →	DFW 19:40	GRR 23:09	49%	14%	0.2%	52%
AA 571 American Flight history →	DFW 19:07	GRR 22:35	50%	15%	0.2%	61%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Grand Rapids is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DFW 16:13 → ORD 18:55UA 2299	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → GRR 23:57UA 5303 · flown by SkyWest	6h 44m	94%	74%
Delta Details →	DFW 16:23 → ATL 19:33DL 921	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → GRR 23:54DL 2865	6h 31m	100%	65%
American Details →	DFW 16:26 → ORD 18:42AA 1290	3h 50m Chicago	ORD 22:32 → GRR 00:36 +1AA 1096	7h 10m	98%	63%
United Details →	DFW 17:47 → ORD 20:30UA 1564	1h 17m Chicago	ORD 21:47 → GRR 23:48UA 1819	5h 01m	83%	61%
American Details →	DFW 15:57 → CLT 19:45AA 2407	2h 52m Charlotte	CLT 22:37 → GRR 00:31 +1AA 676	7h 34m	89%	43%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DFW 18:35 → DTW 22:20DL 1441	53m Detroit	DTW 23:13 → GRR 00:14 +1DL 4880 · flown by Endeavor	4h 39m	64%	57%
American Details →	DFW 18:38 → ORD 21:22AA 1424	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 22:32 → GRR 00:36 +1AA 1096	4h 58m	71%	46%
American Details →	DFW 17:54 → CLT 21:44AA 1703	53m Charlotte	CLT 22:37 → GRR 00:31 +1AA 676	5h 37m	47%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON