Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3476 at 07:07 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 3476 DFW 07:07 → HSV 09:01 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3122 DFW 20:36 → HSV 22:25 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3476 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:07	HSV 09:01	12%	3%	0.5%	94%
AA 3578 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:05	HSV 09:01	12%	3%	0.5%	85%
AA 3577 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:36	HSV 11:32	16%	3%	0.8%	92%
AA 3967 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:44	HSV 16:42	16%	3%	0.8%	88%
AA 3580 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 13:12	HSV 15:07	16%	3%	0.8%	87%
AA 4278 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 21:30	HSV 23:26	19%	5%	0.7%	70%
AA 3579 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:10	HSV 19:07	20%	4%	0.8%	66%
OH 5038 PSA	DFW 10:03	HSV 11:58	27%	7%	0.8%	no record
OH 5219 PSA	DFW 16:42	HSV 18:38	29%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 5383 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 12:22	HSV 14:18	30%	8%	0.8%	75%
AA 5205 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 15:46	HSV 17:48	33%	9%	0.8%	76%
AA 3179 American	DFW 20:30	HSV 22:27	39%	11%	2.1%	no record
AA 3122 American Flight history →	DFW 20:36	HSV 22:25	39%	10%	2.1%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON