Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2639 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 2639 DFW 07:20 → IAD 11:26 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1904 DFW 14:36 → IAD 18:37 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2639 United Flight history →	DFW 07:20	IAD 11:26	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 358 United Flight history →	DFW 12:25	IAD 16:31	13%	3%	0.6%	86%
AA 1906 American Flight history →	DFW 07:05	IAD 11:07	13%	3%	0.7%	86%
UA 1240 United Flight history →	DFW 17:15	IAD 21:24	16%	6%	0.6%	79%
F9 3208 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 08:04	IAD 11:59	20%	7%	0.8%	84%
AA 1904 American Flight history →	DFW 14:36	IAD 18:37	25%	7%	0.7%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON