Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2260 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 2260 DFW 05:10 → IAH 06:22 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2209 DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2260 United Flight history →	DFW 05:10	IAH 06:22	7%	3%	0.6%	95%
UA 2670 United Flight history →	DFW 07:00	IAH 08:26	18%	5%	0.6%	72%
UA 2114 United Flight history →	DFW 19:34	IAH 20:55	18%	8%	0.6%	84%
UA 1586 United Flight history →	DFW 09:46	IAH 11:03	18%	5%	0.6%	82%
AA 3583 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:33	IAH 15:48	19%	4%	0.7%	71%
UA 1609 United Flight history →	DFW 17:24	IAH 18:46	20%	8%	0.6%	60%
UA 539 United Flight history →	DFW 11:59	IAH 13:17	21%	6%	0.6%	85%
AA 4923 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 17:50	IAH 19:11	22%	12%	0.7%	71%
AA 3598 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 06:58	IAH 08:11	22%	4%	0.7%	69%
OO 4980 SkyWest	DFW 10:02	IAH 11:15	24%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 2682 United Flight history →	DFW 16:01	IAH 17:18	26%	7%	0.6%	67%
OH 5181 PSA	DFW 08:34	IAH 09:51	28%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 1916 American Flight history →	DFW 08:35	IAH 09:47	30%	5%	1.3%	67%
AA 2166 American	DFW 09:44	IAH 10:57	33%	6%	1.8%	no record
AA 1392 American Flight history →	DFW 18:36	IAH 19:54	36%	10%	1.2%	50%
AA 2512 American Flight history →	DFW 11:58	IAH 13:08	38%	9%	1.0%	41%
AA 1929 American Flight history →	DFW 16:51	IAH 18:08	39%	10%	1.0%	28%
AA 3193 American Flight history →	DFW 07:20	IAH 08:32	39%	6%	1.3%	73%worse than usual
AA 1914 American Flight history →	DFW 22:48	IAH 23:58	39%	9%	1.3%	45%
AA 2209 American Flight history →	DFW 21:10	IAH 22:24	41%	10%	1.3%	48%
UA 3985 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DFW 14:15	IAH 15:37	29%	17%	0.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON