Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1506 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 1506 DFW 07:00 → IND 10:12 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1450 DFW 17:52 → IND 20:58 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1506 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	IND 10:12	15%	5%	1.0%	88%
AA 1948 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	IND 10:12	16%	5%	1.3%	82%
AA 1955 American Flight history →	DFW 09:30	IND 12:42	21%	5%	1.0%	79%
AA 500 American	DFW 10:12	IND 13:34	22%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 3312 American	DFW 13:27	IND 16:45	25%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 1956 American Flight history →	DFW 13:14	IND 16:27	26%	7%	1.2%	59%
AA 1945 American Flight history →	DFW 16:11	IND 19:24	30%	9%	1.2%	46%
AA 1413 American	DFW 16:00	IND 19:12	30%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 2800 American Flight history →	DFW 19:09	IND 22:23	33%	9%	1.2%	51%
F9 3202 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:57	IND 21:15	33%	9%	0.8%	85%worse than usual
AA 766 American Flight history →	DFW 20:44	IND 23:58	35%	10%	0.9%	50%
AA 1450 American	DFW 17:52	IND 20:58	37%	9%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON