Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1975 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 1975 DFW 07:10 → JAX 10:37 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2197 DFW 19:03 → JAX 22:30 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1975 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	JAX 10:37	16%	6%	0.8%	85%
AA 1061 American Flight history →	DFW 07:30	JAX 10:58	16%	6%	0.8%	89%
AA 687 American Flight history →	DFW 09:29	JAX 12:57	22%	6%	1.9%	64%
AA 1998 American Flight history →	DFW 10:01	JAX 13:28	24%	6%	1.9%	60%
AA 1472 American	DFW 13:01	JAX 16:34	30%	8%	1.8%	no record
AA 1460 American	DFW 15:43	JAX 19:13	35%	11%	1.8%	no record
AA 2263 American Flight history →	DFW 18:52	JAX 22:24	37%	12%	2.3%	49%
AA 2449 American Flight history →	DFW 17:45	JAX 21:16	37%	12%	2.7%	58%
AA 2506 American Flight history →	DFW 20:16	JAX 23:41	37%	11%	3.0%	40%
AA 2197 American	DFW 19:03	JAX 22:30	41%	11%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON