Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:35 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 6 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: AA 578 at 16:13 is the safest bet, 37% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 39–49%.

Safest bet today AA 578 DFW 16:13 → JFK 21:00 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time Riskiest AA 9806 DFW 17:38 → JFK 21:57 · 49% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 41% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 34% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 578 American Flight history →	DFW 16:13	JFK 21:00	37%	10%	0.2%	57%
AA 1203 American Flight history →	DFW 17:39	JFK 22:30	39%	10%	0.2%	46%
AA 1248 American Flight history →	DFW 17:51	JFK 22:31	40%	10%	0.2%	64%
AA 9806 American	DFW 17:38	JFK 21:57	49%	11%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON