Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: F9 1649 at 06:32 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–37%.

Safest bet that day F9 1649 DFW 06:32 → LAS 07:32 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2864 DFW 16:58 → LAS 17:48 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 1649 Frontier	DFW 06:32	LAS 07:32	18%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 1969 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	LAS 07:51	19%	5%	0.8%	83%
AA 1132 American	DFW 09:46	LAS 10:51	20%	8%	0.8%	no record
F9 1051 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 08:57	LAS 09:59	20%	6%	0.8%	86%
AA 1584 American Flight history →	DFW 08:25	LAS 09:16	20%	5%	1.2%	85%
AA 1482 American Flight history →	DFW 11:00	LAS 12:07	25%	9%	0.8%	78%
AA 777 American Flight history →	DFW 12:18	LAS 13:06	30%	8%	0.8%	75%
AA 3285 American Flight history →	DFW 11:06	LAS 11:54	31%	8%	0.8%	65%
AA 2376 American Flight history →	DFW 13:40	LAS 14:28	31%	10%	0.8%	54%
AA 884 American Flight history →	DFW 17:50	LAS 18:42	33%	12%	0.9%	56%
AA 1771 American Flight history →	DFW 19:22	LAS 20:11	33%	13%	0.9%	59%
AA 2998 American Flight history →	DFW 22:59	LAS 23:48	33%	10%	0.9%	52%
F9 3885 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 22:51	LAS 23:47	33%	12%	1.0%	73%
AA 1797 American Flight history →	DFW 20:54	LAS 21:45	35%	12%	0.9%	55%
F9 1647 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 20:35	LAS 21:31	35%	15%	0.9%	60%
AA 2864 American Flight history →	DFW 16:58	LAS 17:48	37%	12%	0.8%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON