Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 439 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–40%.

Safest bet that day DL 439 DFW 07:35 → LAX 08:45 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1504 DFW 22:31 → LAX 23:45 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 439 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:35	LAX 08:45	10%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 3303 American	DFW 05:56	LAX 07:08	11%	3%	1.0%	no record
DL 521 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:45	LAX 14:58	12%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 2005 American Flight history →	DFW 06:00	LAX 07:13	13%	3%	1.3%	82%
AA 1043 American	DFW 07:15	LAX 08:32	16%	4%	1.2%	no record
F9 2273 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:35	LAX 08:54	17%	4%	0.8%	85%
DL 948 Delta Flight history →	DFW 20:35	LAX 21:50	18%	5%	0.7%	86%
AA 1154 American Flight history →	DFW 07:20	LAX 08:35	18%	5%	1.3%	76%
AA 3181 American	DFW 10:57	LAX 12:25	19%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 1996 American Flight history →	DFW 08:35	LAX 09:49	22%	4%	1.2%	83%
AA 3273 American Flight history →	DFW 09:25	LAX 10:37	23%	6%	0.9%	69%
AA 2827 American Flight history →	DFW 10:45	LAX 11:57	23%	6%	0.9%	73%
F9 4963 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 16:08	LAX 17:30	25%	11%	0.7%	76%
AA 2041 American Flight history →	DFW 11:41	LAX 12:53	26%	6%	0.9%	76%
AA 3334 American Flight history →	DFW 13:11	LAX 14:20	27%	6%	0.9%	75%
AA 2732 American Flight history →	DFW 15:30	LAX 16:39	29%	9%	0.9%	45%
AA 1972 American Flight history →	DFW 17:30	LAX 18:44	32%	9%	0.9%	53%
AA 966 American Flight history →	DFW 16:30	LAX 17:45	33%	9%	0.9%	67%
AA 2766 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	LAX 19:45	34%	9%	0.9%	56%
AA 1084 American Flight history →	DFW 20:49	LAX 22:03	37%	10%	0.9%	44%
AA 1504 American Flight history →	DFW 22:31	LAX 23:45	40%	9%	1.2%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON