Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2925 at 06:00, 11%.

Safest bet that day AA 2925 DFW 06:00 → LGA 10:21 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest F9 3424 DFW 17:18 → LGA 22:00 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Weather 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2925 American Flight history →	DFW 06:00	LGA 10:21	11%	3%	0.9%	72%
AA 3096 American Flight history →	DFW 06:00	LGA 10:30	12%	3%	0.9%	84%
DL 551 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:00	LGA 11:29	13%	3%	0.8%	86%
AA 1609 American Flight history →	DFW 07:40	LGA 12:13	18%	4%	0.9%	83%
AA 2924 American	DFW 08:34	LGA 13:18	19%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 1056 American Flight history →	DFW 08:25	LGA 13:00	20%	5%	0.9%	75%
DL 873 Delta Flight history →	DFW 10:35	LGA 15:10	22%	4%	0.8%	76%
DL 846 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:59	LGA 23:33	25%	6%	0.9%	59%
AA 3053 American Flight history →	DFW 09:30	LGA 13:59	27%	6%	0.9%	59%
AA 2178 American	DFW 09:31	LGA 13:56	27%	6%	0.9%	no record
DL 856 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:15	LGA 17:53	28%	8%	0.8%	64%
DL 869 Delta Flight history →	DFW 16:10	LGA 20:51	28%	9%	0.8%	69%
AA 3088 American Flight history →	DFW 10:30	LGA 15:03	33%	7%	0.9%	53%
AA 2708 American Flight history →	DFW 19:13	LGA 23:45	37%	9%	1.0%	55%
AA 3289 American Flight history →	DFW 11:30	LGA 16:02	37%	9%	0.9%	52%
AA 1329 American Flight history →	DFW 17:50	LGA 22:30	39%	11%	1.0%	42%
AA 610 American Flight history →	DFW 14:48	LGA 19:22	39%	13%	1.0%	54%
AA 1535 American Flight history →	DFW 13:54	LGA 18:28	41%	10%	1.0%	58%
AA 2028 American Flight history →	DFW 15:55	LGA 20:29	41%	11%	1.2%	40%
AA 2513 American Flight history →	DFW 16:49	LGA 21:29	42%	10%	1.0%	56%
F9 3424 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:18	LGA 22:00	46%	19%	1.3%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON