Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Long Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31DL 1291	1h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	6h 14m	93%	80%
Alaska Details →	DFW 13:02 → SEA 15:23AS 415	2h 53m Seattle	SEA 18:16 → LGB 20:59AS 1310	9h 57m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	DFW 06:24 → SEA 08:45AS 543	2h 36m Seattle	SEA 11:21 → LGB 14:07AS 717	9h 43m	97%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON