Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3850 at 07:13 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 3850 DFW 07:13 → LIT 08:33 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest OH 5087 DFW 14:19 → LIT 15:44 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3850 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:13	LIT 08:33	8%	2%	0.4%	89%
AA 3628 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:12	LIT 08:35	9%	2%	0.4%	86%
AA 3632 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:41	LIT 11:03	11%	2%	0.6%	86%
AA 3636 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 11:56	LIT 13:18	11%	2%	0.6%	82%
AA 4309 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:51	LIT 17:13	15%	3%	0.6%	77%
AA 4008 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:43	LIT 17:05	16%	3%	0.6%	72%
MQ 3505 Envoy	DFW 17:08	LIT 18:33	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3635 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:01	LIT 18:23	16%	3%	0.6%	77%
OH 5079 PSA	DFW 10:08	LIT 11:33	17%	6%	0.8%	no record
OH 5080 PSA	DFW 11:59	LIT 13:24	18%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 4079 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 21:11	LIT 22:35	19%	3%	0.6%	77%
MQ 3411 Envoy	DFW 19:17	LIT 20:37	19%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 3362 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 22:04	LIT 23:23	19%	2%	0.7%	85%
AA 3881 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:38	LIT 21:01	20%	3%	0.6%	63%
OH 5087 PSA	DFW 14:19	LIT 15:44	22%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON