Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4165 at 17:09 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 4165 DFW 17:09 → MCI 18:54 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2267 DFW 17:53 → MCI 19:36 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4165 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:09	MCI 18:54	15%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 6238 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 12:12	MCI 13:58	19%	9%	0.7%	73%
AA 602 American Flight history →	DFW 08:56	MCI 10:34	24%	4%	1.0%	79%
AA 3331 American Flight history →	DFW 09:31	MCI 11:14	26%	5%	1.0%	70%
AA 2742 American	DFW 12:09	MCI 13:53	27%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 3030 American Flight history →	DFW 15:02	MCI 16:48	32%	9%	1.2%	59%
AA 1036 American Flight history →	DFW 22:44	MCI 00:23	33%	8%	1.3%	53%
AA 922 American Flight history →	DFW 15:50	MCI 17:27	37%	10%	1.2%	57%
AA 2267 American Flight history →	DFW 17:53	MCI 19:36	38%	12%	1.2%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON