Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3085 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 3085 DFW 06:01 → MCO 09:44 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2886 DFW 20:20 → MCO 00:14 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3085 American	DFW 06:01	MCO 09:44	14%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 3173 American Flight history →	DFW 06:15	MCO 09:50	16%	4%	0.9%	83%
AA 2119 American Flight history →	DFW 07:05	MCO 10:49	18%	4%	0.8%	78%
F9 1482 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 08:28	MCO 12:28	20%	5%	1.2%	81%
AA 2136 American Flight history →	DFW 08:30	MCO 12:11	22%	5%	0.8%	83%
AA 1312 American Flight history →	DFW 10:55	MCO 14:37	22%	6%	1.2%	59%
AA 2097 American Flight history →	DFW 12:00	MCO 15:44	23%	8%	1.2%	41%
F9 4018 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 11:49	MCO 15:48	25%	9%	1.8%	76%
AA 1288 American Flight history →	DFW 13:15	MCO 16:56	30%	9%	1.3%	60%
AA 2791 American Flight history →	DFW 16:33	MCO 20:25	37%	12%	1.3%	44%
AA 2186 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	MCO 22:20	37%	12%	1.3%	46%
AA 2974 American Flight history →	DFW 17:18	MCO 21:10	37%	12%	2.3%	51%
AA 364 American Flight history →	DFW 19:40	MCO 23:24	39%	12%	1.6%	22%
AA 1336 American Flight history →	DFW 20:35	MCO 00:21	39%	13%	2.1%	52%
F9 2886 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 20:20	MCO 00:14	39%	19%	2.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON