Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3888 at 12:28 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 3888 DFW 12:28 → MEM 14:05 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1646 DFW 22:31 → MEM 00:04 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3888 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:28	MEM 14:05	15%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 3678 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:10	MEM 16:49	15%	3%	0.7%	84%
AA 1935 American Flight history →	DFW 07:04	MEM 08:41	20%	4%	1.6%	64%
AA 1710 American	DFW 09:27	MEM 11:03	26%	6%	1.8%	no record
AA 3262 American Flight history →	DFW 19:55	MEM 21:27	35%	12%	1.3%	44%
AA 1646 American Flight history →	DFW 22:31	MEM 00:04	38%	10%	1.8%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON