Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:12 am at Dallas-Fort Worth); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 37–46% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 869 DFW 14:37 → MKE 17:11 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest AA 1177 DFW 19:20 → MKE 21:44 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 869 American Flight history →	DFW 14:37	MKE 17:11	37%	14%	0.2%	71%
AA 1234 American Flight history →	DFW 21:10	MKE 23:34	42%	16%	0.2%	46%
AA 1177 American	DFW 19:20	MKE 21:44	46%	18%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON