tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:25 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Phoenix, leaving 12:52, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Monterey on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Monterey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Monterey is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DFW 12:52 → PHX 13:01AA 336 3h 35m Phoenix PHX 16:36 → MRY 18:28AA 2884 7h 36m 100% 67%
AlaskaDetails → DFW 19:24 → SAN 20:29AS 780 1h 57m San Diego SAN 22:26 → MRY 23:58AS 3005 · flown by SkyWest 6h 34m 86% 63%
AmericanDetails → DFW 16:37 → PHX 17:09AA 1155 3h 28m Phoenix PHX 20:37 → MRY 22:33AA 6374 · flown by SkyWest 7h 56m 97% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DFW 16:50 → DEN 18:20UA 1303 1h 10m Denver DEN 19:30 → MRY 21:18UA 1822 6h 28m 73% 51%
UnitedDetails → DFW 19:51 → SFO 21:45UA 2330 55m San Francisco SFO 22:40 → MRY 23:47UA 5670 · flown by SkyWest 5h 56m 59% 44%
AmericanDetails → DFW 19:14 → PHX 19:43AA 818 54m Phoenix PHX 20:37 → MRY 22:33AA 6374 · flown by SkyWest 5h 19m 61% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON