Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:49 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 876 at 20:36, with a 52% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 876 American Flight history →	DFW 20:36	MSN 22:53	52%	22%	0.2%	48%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DFW 18:38 → ORD 21:22AA 1424	1h 38m Chicago	ORD 23:00 → MSN 00:10 +1AA 3728 · flown by Envoy	5h 32m	73%	59%
Delta Details →	DFW 18:31 → MSP 21:00DL 2873	59m Minneapolis	MSP 21:59 → MSN 23:00DL 1599	4h 29m	64%	50%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON