Today: DL 1276 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–33%.

Safest bet today DL 1276 DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2806 DFW 18:51 → MSP 21:21 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1276 Delta Flight history →	DFW 06:55	MSP 09:23	9%	3%	0.1%	90%
AA 2220 American Flight history →	DFW 06:53	MSP 09:17	16%	5%	0.3%	83%
DL 2900 Delta Flight history →	DFW 15:34	MSP 18:03	17%	3%	0.7%	80%
DL 1625 Delta	DFW 18:34	MSP 21:00	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 2873 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:31	MSP 21:00	19%	5%	0.7%	55%
AA 1668 American	DFW 12:08	MSP 14:42	21%	6%	0.2%	no record
DL 2972 Delta Flight history →	DFW 11:16	MSP 13:44	22%	4%	0.1%	84%
F9 1456 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 09:04	MSP 11:38	26%	9%	0.7%	91%worse than usual
DL 1629 Delta	DFW 15:18	MSP 17:43	28%	4%	0.1%	no record
AA 3149 American Flight history →	DFW 21:30	MSP 23:57	29%	8%	1.3%	44%
AA 2148 American Flight history →	DFW 15:59	MSP 18:23	30%	10%	1.6%	52%
F9 3224 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 15:31	MSP 18:08	33%	10%	0.8%	77%
AA 2406 American Flight history →	DFW 15:43	MSP 18:09	33%	9%	1.6%	62%
AA 2806 American Flight history →	DFW 18:51	MSP 21:21	33%	10%	1.6%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON