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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 3591 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–41%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3591 DFW 09:00 → MSY 10:34 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2194 DFW 15:39 → MSY 17:07 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time
Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
MQ 3591 Envoy DFW 09:00 MSY 10:34 18% 2% 1.3% no record
AA 3721 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 12:38 MSY 14:12 20% 2% 1.8% 78%
AA 2157 American Flight history → DFW 07:27 MSY 09:06 23% 9% 0.6% 79%
AA 1684 American DFW 08:45 MSY 10:27 24% 5% 1.8% no record
AA 2183 American Flight history → DFW 07:01 MSY 08:30 26% 9% 0.7% 80%
AA 1650 American DFW 10:22 MSY 12:04 26% 6% 1.6% no record
AA 2885 American Flight history → DFW 10:00 MSY 11:30 30% 5% 1.6% 69%
AA 379 American DFW 13:32 MSY 15:10 32% 9% 1.6% no record
F9 4994 Frontier Flight history → DFW 14:54 MSY 16:58 33% 12% 1.2% 72%
AA 3254 American Flight history → DFW 16:06 MSY 17:50 37% 10% 1.3% 56%
AA 2237 American Flight history → DFW 20:08 MSY 21:48 37% 10% 1.8% 59%
AA 842 American DFW 17:24 MSY 19:02 37% 10% 1.9% no record
AA 2158 American Flight history → DFW 17:26 MSY 19:03 39% 11% 1.9% 42%
AA 1455 American Flight history → DFW 20:00 MSY 21:29 41% 10% 1.9% 59%
AA 2194 American Flight history → DFW 15:39 MSY 17:07 42% 10% 1.3% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON