Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 24–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today MQ 4037 DFW 19:12 → MYR 22:52 · 24% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4019 DFW 19:28 → MYR 23:16 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4037 Envoy	DFW 19:12	MYR 22:52	24%	6%	0.2%	no record
OH 5121 PSA	DFW 12:49	MYR 16:30	24%	11%	0.6%	no record
AA 4019 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:28	MYR 23:16	26%	6%	0.3%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON