Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 6206 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 6206 DFW 07:15 → OKC 08:29 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1458 DFW 21:29 → OKC 22:33 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6206 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 07:15	OKC 08:29	11%	6%	0.6%	90%
AA 3805 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:30	OKC 10:37	12%	3%	0.7%	93%
AA 3731 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:49	OKC 11:56	12%	3%	0.7%	84%
AA 4946 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 07:12	OKC 08:22	13%	6%	0.6%	100%worse than usual
AA 3730 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:04	OKC 16:08	19%	5%	0.7%	71%
AA 3533 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 16:20	OKC 17:25	22%	5%	0.7%	81%
AA 1902 American Flight history →	DFW 08:57	OKC 10:07	22%	6%	1.2%	82%
AA 3727 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:34	OKC 19:39	22%	5%	0.8%	72%
AA 2734 American Flight history →	DFW 10:45	OKC 12:00	22%	9%	1.2%	47%
AA 3729 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:40	OKC 18:45	23%	5%	0.7%	73%
AA 5362 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 13:20	OKC 14:34	24%	10%	0.8%	62%
AA 2929 American Flight history →	DFW 13:26	OKC 14:38	26%	10%	1.2%	77%
AA 1760 American	DFW 14:57	OKC 16:11	30%	12%	1.2%	no record
AA 2812 American Flight history →	DFW 17:09	OKC 18:23	33%	14%	1.2%	27%
AA 1458 American Flight history →	DFW 21:29	OKC 22:33	37%	11%	1.3%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON