Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2135 at 07:43 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–42%.

Safest bet that day AA 2135 DFW 07:43 → OMA 09:39 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2167 DFW 18:33 → OMA 20:30 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2135 American	DFW 07:43	OMA 09:39	16%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 2899 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	OMA 09:00	17%	4%	0.3%	81%
AA 2823 American Flight history →	DFW 09:28	OMA 11:25	25%	5%	0.8%	70%
AA 2226 American Flight history →	DFW 09:35	OMA 11:25	28%	5%	1.0%	80%
AA 2269 American Flight history →	DFW 13:46	OMA 15:43	30%	8%	1.0%	75%
AA 2232 American Flight history →	DFW 17:06	OMA 18:59	37%	9%	1.0%	46%
AA 2628 American Flight history →	DFW 21:30	OMA 23:22	39%	10%	1.0%	52%
AA 2270 American Flight history →	DFW 16:46	OMA 18:43	40%	9%	1.0%	54%
AA 2167 American	DFW 18:33	OMA 20:30	42%	10%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON