Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2238 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 2238 DFW 08:20 → ONT 09:29 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1534 DFW 22:52 → ONT 23:59 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2238 American Flight history →	DFW 08:20	ONT 09:29	16%	4%	1.3%	90%
AA 1820 American Flight history →	DFW 08:27	ONT 09:50	17%	4%	1.3%	79%
AA 2956 American Flight history →	DFW 10:47	ONT 12:08	21%	6%	1.0%	74%
F9 4689 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:31	ONT 08:37	22%	5%	1.2%	79%
AA 2242 American Flight history →	DFW 10:40	ONT 11:45	25%	6%	1.0%	76%
AA 2239 American Flight history →	DFW 12:20	ONT 13:22	27%	7%	1.0%	58%
AA 2236 American Flight history →	DFW 18:50	ONT 19:59	37%	10%	1.2%	62%
AA 711 American Flight history →	DFW 21:27	ONT 22:32	37%	13%	1.2%	53%
AA 1534 American Flight history →	DFW 22:52	ONT 23:59	38%	11%	1.2%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON