Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 35 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1360 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 1360 DFW 05:00 → ORD 07:38 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 1573 DFW 17:49 → ORD 20:07 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1360 American Flight history →	DFW 05:00	ORD 07:38	12%	6%	0.4%	80%
MQ 3549 Envoy	DFW 07:56	ORD 10:23	12%	4%	0.4%	no record
UA 1695 United Flight history →	DFW 07:08	ORD 09:50	13%	6%	0.2%	82%
UA 1114 United Flight history →	DFW 09:45	ORD 12:26	13%	4%	0.6%	92%
AA 328 American Flight history →	DFW 08:26	ORD 10:52	14%	7%	0.4%	85%
AA 1059 American Flight history →	DFW 08:30	ORD 11:10	14%	7%	0.4%	83%
AA 3075 American Flight history →	DFW 06:00	ORD 08:39	15%	6%	0.3%	80%
UA 1401 United Flight history →	DFW 12:00	ORD 14:42	15%	5%	0.6%	74%
UA 1634 United Flight history →	DFW 10:37	ORD 13:09	16%	5%	0.6%	83%
AA 1106 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	ORD 09:42	16%	7%	0.3%	74%
AA 2999 American Flight history →	DFW 05:51	ORD 08:08	16%	6%	0.4%	76%
AA 3531 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:28	ORD 22:15	16%	5%	0.7%	64%
AA 1938 American Flight history →	DFW 04:52	ORD 07:18	17%	7%	0.4%	90%
AA 3790 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:31	ORD 23:04	17%	4%	0.7%	66%
AA 3330 American Flight history →	DFW 10:45	ORD 13:25	19%	5%	1.3%	63%
UA 2160 United Flight history →	DFW 14:15	ORD 16:57	20%	5%	0.6%	63%
AA 337 American	DFW 09:30	ORD 11:56	20%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 1618 American	DFW 12:31	ORD 14:57	21%	5%	2.1%	no record
UA 1517 United Flight history →	DFW 19:30	ORD 22:13	22%	6%	0.6%	68%
AA 1193 American Flight history →	DFW 22:12	ORD 00:50	22%	5%	1.3%	55%
AA 2988 American Flight history →	DFW 13:10	ORD 15:51	23%	5%	1.3%	66%
UA 2299 United Flight history →	DFW 16:13	ORD 18:55	24%	6%	0.6%	57%
AA 2346 American Flight history →	DFW 21:00	ORD 23:39	25%	6%	1.2%	63%
UA 1564 United Flight history →	DFW 17:47	ORD 20:30	26%	6%	0.6%	60%
AA 2474 American Flight history →	DFW 16:50	ORD 19:44	26%	8%	1.2%	55%
F9 1342 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 13:25	ORD 16:08	27%	9%	0.8%	75%
UA 2275 United	DFW 17:50	ORD 20:16	28%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 1285 American Flight history →	DFW 13:48	ORD 16:12	28%	6%	1.3%	72%
AA 1893 American Flight history →	DFW 17:34	ORD 20:29	30%	8%	1.3%	41%
AA 1424 American Flight history →	DFW 18:38	ORD 21:22	31%	7%	1.3%	39%
AA 3264 American	DFW 15:45	ORD 18:12	33%	8%	1.3%	no record
AA 1290 American Flight history →	DFW 16:26	ORD 18:43	35%	8%	2.1%	69%
AA 2656 American	DFW 19:01	ORD 21:26	35%	9%	2.1%	no record
F9 3242 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 16:47	ORD 19:21	36%	13%	0.8%	63%
AA 1573 American Flight history →	DFW 17:49	ORD 20:07	39%	9%	1.6%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON