Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2276 at 09:30 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 2276 DFW 09:30 → PBI 13:21 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest AA 2467 DFW 18:50 → PBI 22:45 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2276 American Flight history →	DFW 09:30	PBI 13:21	24%	6%	1.2%	72%
AA 2282 American Flight history →	DFW 13:29	PBI 17:19	30%	8%	1.2%	53%
AA 2467 American Flight history →	DFW 18:50	PBI 22:45	37%	9%	1.2%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON