tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: AS 646 at 17:45 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–45%.

Safest bet that day AS 646 DFW 17:45 → PDX 19:49 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 2283 DFW 20:49 → PDX 22:51 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time
Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AS 646 Alaska Flight history → DFW 17:45 PDX 19:49 16% 3% 0.7% 82%
AS 303 Alaska Flight history → DFW 14:02 PDX 16:02 18% 3% 0.7% 77%
AA 2655 American Flight history → DFW 08:42 PDX 10:47 27% 4% 1.0% 75%
AA 2286 American Flight history → DFW 10:40 PDX 12:40 28% 6% 1.0% 62%
AA 2287 American Flight history → DFW 09:01 PDX 11:01 30% 4% 1.0% 76%
AA 2496 American Flight history → DFW 11:31 PDX 13:45 31% 6% 1.0% 76%
AA 685 American Flight history → DFW 16:37 PDX 18:41 36% 8% 0.9% 53%
AA 2028 American Flight history → DFW 15:00 PDX 17:16 36% 6% 1.0% 51%
AA 2620 American Flight history → DFW 22:54 PDX 00:55 37% 8% 1.0% 44%
AA 2298 American Flight history → DFW 19:29 PDX 21:29 41% 9% 1.0% 53%
AA 2283 American Flight history → DFW 20:49 PDX 22:51 45% 9% 1.2% 58%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → DFW 14:31 → SLC 16:18DL 2800 1h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238 5h 47m 87% 74%
DeltaDetails → DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798 57m Salt Lake City SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244 5h 39m 83% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON