Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2358 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 2358 DFW 05:05 → PHL 09:22 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2542 DFW 20:19 → PHL 00:35 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2358 American Flight history →	DFW 05:05	PHL 09:22	13%	5%	1.0%	90%
AA 2128 American Flight history →	DFW 08:40	PHL 13:02	17%	6%	0.8%	90%
AA 415 American Flight history →	DFW 07:30	PHL 11:52	17%	6%	0.8%	83%
AA 417 American Flight history →	DFW 07:23	PHL 11:34	18%	6%	0.8%	80%
AA 2255 American	DFW 08:29	PHL 12:39	19%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2436 American	DFW 04:58	PHL 09:21	21%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 402 American Flight history →	DFW 09:38	PHL 14:00	24%	7%	1.8%	74%
AA 1109 American	DFW 12:20	PHL 16:41	27%	8%	1.3%	no record
AA 2947 American Flight history →	DFW 12:14	PHL 16:37	27%	7%	1.8%	60%
F9 2970 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 09:59	PHL 14:21	28%	9%	1.0%	72%
AA 1100 American Flight history →	DFW 14:25	PHL 18:52	30%	9%	1.6%	62%
AA 2862 American	DFW 13:37	PHL 17:58	31%	9%	1.6%	no record
AA 991 American Flight history →	DFW 17:30	PHL 22:17	31%	10%	1.8%	52%
AA 2213 American	DFW 14:37	PHL 19:00	32%	10%	1.6%	no record
AA 3242 American Flight history →	DFW 18:35	PHL 22:57	33%	10%	1.3%	47%
AA 2973 American Flight history →	DFW 16:10	PHL 20:53	33%	10%	1.3%	62%
AA 2152 American	DFW 16:28	PHL 20:50	33%	10%	1.6%	no record
AA 2542 American Flight history →	DFW 20:19	PHL 00:35	37%	8%	1.8%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON