Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 3512 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–42%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3512 DFW 08:10 → PHX 09:06 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2319 DFW 22:59 → PHX 23:28 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 37% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3512 Envoy	DFW 08:10	PHX 09:06	14%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1818 American Flight history →	DFW 06:17	PHX 06:50	17%	4%	0.9%	79%
AA 474 American Flight history →	DFW 07:08	PHX 07:34	23%	5%	1.2%	84%
AA 520 American Flight history →	DFW 08:55	PHX 09:29	25%	5%	0.9%	76%
AA 2103 American	DFW 10:47	PHX 11:30	26%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 2990 American Flight history →	DFW 10:50	PHX 11:19	28%	6%	1.2%	85%worse than usual
AA 2605 American	DFW 09:29	PHX 10:01	30%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 1685 American Flight history →	DFW 12:33	PHX 13:00	30%	6%	0.9%	76%
AA 2108 American Flight history →	DFW 14:30	PHX 14:57	30%	8%	0.9%	60%
AA 554 American Flight history →	DFW 15:34	PHX 15:59	33%	6%	0.9%	76%
AA 2113 American Flight history →	DFW 13:40	PHX 14:08	33%	6%	0.9%	67%
F9 3971 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 11:54	PHX 12:26	37%	9%	0.8%	81%worse than usual
AA 1155 American Flight history →	DFW 16:37	PHX 17:09	37%	8%	0.9%	66%
AA 1648 American Flight history →	DFW 17:55	PHX 18:27	37%	9%	0.9%	53%
F9 2531 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 22:23	PHX 22:59	39%	14%	0.8%	64%
AA 1133 American Flight history →	DFW 20:30	PHX 21:02	39%	9%	0.9%	64%
AA 3239 American Flight history →	DFW 21:29	PHX 22:00	39%	9%	0.9%	61%
AA 818 American Flight history →	DFW 19:14	PHX 19:43	41%	9%	0.9%	50%
AA 2319 American Flight history →	DFW 22:59	PHX 23:28	42%	9%	1.0%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON