Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2290 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 2290 DFW 07:00 → PIT 10:47 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 680 DFW 17:55 → PIT 21:48 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2290 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	PIT 10:47	16%	6%	0.9%	85%
AA 1583 American Flight history →	DFW 06:51	PIT 10:27	19%	8%	0.8%	89%
AA 2311 American Flight history →	DFW 10:33	PIT 14:19	23%	9%	0.8%	74%
AA 2664 American Flight history →	DFW 11:05	PIT 14:54	25%	10%	0.8%	80%
AA 1868 American Flight history →	DFW 15:06	PIT 18:53	31%	10%	0.9%	72%
AA 2307 American Flight history →	DFW 14:57	PIT 18:43	32%	10%	0.9%	69%
AA 1761 American Flight history →	DFW 17:30	PIT 21:20	35%	10%	1.0%	62%
AA 680 American Flight history →	DFW 17:55	PIT 21:48	37%	10%	1.0%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON