Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:40 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 2709 at 19:35, with a 35% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 2709 American Flight history →	DFW 19:35	PSP 20:36	35%	12%	0.3%	61%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Palm Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Palm Springs is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DFW 15:21 → SFO 17:13UA 454	1h 25m San Francisco	SFO 18:38 → PSP 20:26UA 5705 · flown by SkyWest	7h 05m	89%	65%
Alaska Details →	DFW 16:16 → SEA 18:37AS 1574	1h 18m Seattle	SEA 19:55 → PSP 22:51AS 3214 · flown by SkyWest	8h 35m	88%	60%
American Details →	DFW 16:37 → PHX 17:09AA 1155	3h 14m Phoenix	PHX 20:23 → PSP 21:32AA 4922 · flown by SkyWest	6h 55m	95%	60%
American Details →	DFW 14:30 → PHX 14:57AA 2108	2h 50m Phoenix	PHX 17:47 → PSP 18:52AA 2333	6h 22m	95%	57%
Alaska Details →	DFW 14:15 → PDX 15:43AS 303	1h 53m Portland	PDX 17:36 → PSP 20:14AS 3022 · flown by SkyWest	7h 59m	85%	48%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DFW 16:50 → DEN 18:20UA 1303	1h 10m Denver	DEN 19:30 → PSP 21:01UA 2644	6h 11m	73%	52%
American Details →	DFW 15:34 → PHX 15:59AA 554	1h 15m Phoenix	PHX 17:14 → PSP 18:28AA 2562	4h 54m	70%	44%
American Details →	DFW 18:39 → PHX 19:12AA 2047	1h 11m Phoenix	PHX 20:23 → PSP 21:32AA 4922 · flown by SkyWest	4h 53m	62%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON