Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:05 am at Dallas-Fort Worth)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops today


AA 2353 American Flight history →	DFW 11:55	PWM 16:41	30%	9%	0.3%	82%worse than usual
AA 2312 American Flight history →	DFW 13:46	PWM 18:45	37%	8%	0.9%	56%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DFW 13:48 → ORD 16:11AA 1285	3h 46m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → PWM 23:25AA 4504 · flown by Republic	8h 37m	98%	84%
United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773	3h 01m Denver	DEN 09:54 → PWM 15:49UA 1598	9h 04m	100%	84%
United Details →	DFW 06:00 → EWR 10:29UA 1847	1h 30m Newark	EWR 11:59 → PWM 13:25UA 3685 · flown by Republic	6h 25m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 10:20 → PWM 13:00DL 2479	6h 40m	99%	81%
American Details →	DFW 10:45 → ORD 13:25AA 3330	2h 03m Chicago	ORD 15:28 → PWM 19:02AA 4774 · flown by Republic	7h 17m	91%	81%
American Details →	DFW 16:26 → ORD 18:42AA 1290	2h 27m Chicago	ORD 21:09 → PWM 00:43 +1AA 4403 · flown by Republic	7h 17m	93%	78%
American Details →	DFW 07:23 → PHL 11:33AA 417	3h 19m Philadelphia	PHL 14:52 → PWM 16:35AA 5127 · flown by PSA	8h 12m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183	56m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → PWM 11:55DL 426	5h 35m	92%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DFW 17:49 → ORD 20:06AA 1573	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 21:09 → PWM 00:43 +1AA 4403 · flown by Republic	5h 54m	63%	53%
United Details →	DFW 17:15 → IAD 21:24UA 1240	46m Dulles	IAD 22:10 → PWM 23:51UA 2064	5h 36m	62%	49%
American Details →	DFW 09:38 → PHL 14:00AA 402	52m Philadelphia	PHL 14:52 → PWM 16:35AA 5127 · flown by PSA	5h 57m	54%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON