Today: AA 2683 at 07:08 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37%.

Safest bet today AA 2683 DFW 07:08 → RDU 11:03 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 979 DFW 17:43 → RDU 21:34 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2683 American Flight history →	DFW 07:08	RDU 11:03	14%	3%	0.2%	84%
AA 2366 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	RDU 10:46	16%	3%	0.2%	78%
F9 3330 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:16	RDU 11:07	18%	6%	0.5%	88%
AA 2400 American Flight history →	DFW 09:40	RDU 13:27	19%	4%	0.2%	77%
AA 2693 American Flight history →	DFW 09:26	RDU 13:13	20%	4%	0.2%	72%
AA 2091 American Flight history →	DFW 12:21	RDU 16:15	26%	5%	0.2%	85%worse than usual
AA 1888 American Flight history →	DFW 14:51	RDU 18:44	35%	8%	0.2%	71%
AA 542 American Flight history →	DFW 20:04	RDU 23:48	37%	13%	1.2%	58%
AA 979 American Flight history →	DFW 17:43	RDU 21:34	37%	12%	1.3%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON